The Ashes 2019 Preview
It's worth considering, in the post World Cup euphoria, just how bleak things looked a fortnight before Buttler broke the stumps at the Pavilion End with Martin Guptill in no-man's-land. As recently as June 25th, on the same hallowed Lord's turf where Ben, Jos and Jofra later wrote their names into cricketing history, England were humbled by Australia in a defeat that looked like the nail in the coffin of the hosts' campaign, and a death knell for what had been heralded as the summer of all summers. Of course, that spectre was well and truly exorcised sixteen days later, when England tore the old enemy to shreds in the semi-final at Fortress Edgbaston: a game that at times felt uncannily like the first day of an Ashes Test. A place was booked in the final, the trophy was duly lifted, and our boys in blue were halfway to making 2019 the indisputable
annus mirabilis of English cricket. There was no question of a World Cup hangover; after all, it wasn't like our wobbly Test side were going to get skittled for 85 against a county-level bowling attack within ten days, or anything.
Oh.
The problems are so obvious that they hardly need repeating. A top three which has been in a state of flux since 2012, and which lost its last ever-present pillar of reliability when Cook retired last summer. The constant pressure on Joe Root to weigh in with serious runs, despite frequently coming out to face the new ball at 20-2 or worse. A middle order who fall to pieces against any hint of seam or swing, and quickly resort to one-day flashing and slogging. And naturally, this series is an acid test for Root the captain as well as Root the batsman: his record of two creditable summers on home soil and a historic whitewash in Sri Lanka has been counterbalanced by a miserable 4-0 drubbing in Oz two winters ago, and a best-forgotten shambles in the West Indies this January. No England captain has lost the urn on these shores since Nasser Hussain in 2001. It wouldn't spell the end of Root's captaincy if he broke that eighteen-year streak this summer, but it would be a hard stain to erase.
Thankfully it's not all doom and gloom for England, at least with the ball. Having toiled for little reward down under in 2017, Broad and Anderson should be on top form again in their own backyard. Woakes comes into the series on the back of a five-fer against Ireland that must put him in contention for the first two Tests at least, while Sam Curran provides a left-arm option in addition to his swashbuckling batting cameos, and Jofra Archer - when sufficiently rested - must be in line for a Test debut after his pace and accuracy propelled him into the top five World Cup wicket-takers. Jason Roy did nothing wrong against Ireland and deserves a chance to continue as an opener, but finding a partner for him will be the big ask of the coming six weeks.
None of this is to ignore Australia's troubles, however. Both Smith and Warner make their return to Test cricket for the first time since mistaking Newlands for B&Q, and whether that return will be triumphant or ignominious is anyone's guess. Cameron Bancroft has likewise received the nod after a good summer at Durham to open alongside Warner, with Sheffield Shield top-scorer Marcus Harris also in the running. But Usman Khawaja is still a doubt after a hamstring injury during the World Cup, and Travis Head - despite being Australia's highest Test run-scorer in the last twelve months - continues to blow hot and cold in English conditions.
Nevertheless, like England, the Aussies have a settled bowling attack with formidable pedigree. Mitchell Starc comes into the series as the new all-time highest wicket-taker at a World Cup, and if he can stay fit, his pace and swing may wreak havoc. Backed by the pace of Pat Cummins, the nagging accuracy of Josh Hazlewood and the tricky spin of Nathan Lyon, it's a line-up with something of everything.
The good news for England is that the series begins in the cauldron of Edgbaston, where Australia are without a win in any format since 2001, and England undefeated in their last eight Tests since 2008 (in addition to a current winning streak of eleven matches in all three formats). The dangers in Birmingham will come down to the weather - the forecast for the weekend is already iffy, and changing day by day - and the pressure of expectation, as England should be looking for a 1-0 lead by next Monday. But if the Hollies Stand cranks up the volume, it may be more than the Aussies can take.
Yet the tables may be turned in mid-August as we move south for the traditional second Test at Lord's. After just one Ashes victory at the home of cricket in the entire 20th century (courtesy of Hedley Verity's heroics in 1934), wins in 2009 and 2013 seemed to have broken the curse, but normal service was resumed in 2015 with a thumping Aussie win spearheaded by Smith's double-century. Of England's last ten Tests against all opposition in St John's Wood, five have been won and four lost; no cause for immediate panic, but if England lose the toss on the morning of August 14th, I'd respectfully suggest that it's time for the MCC members to neck eight pints of lager, dress up as cops and robbers and learn the words to the Mitchell Johnson song, pronto.
The last week of summer takes us to the scene of the Botham/Willis miracle of '81, and the unhappiest of recent hunting grounds. This will be the first Ashes Test at Headingley in a decade, with England having won only one of the last five encounters (Mark Butcher's unbeaten 173 in 2001 being the match-winning knock on the last occasion), and three of the four defeats being by an innings margin. It could be argued that most of those hammerings were against the all-conquering Aussie side of the 1990s, but the fact is that since 2008 England have lost five of their nine Tests in Leeds, with Sri Lanka and the West Indies among the victors. Presuming it's too late to relocate to the fine facilities at Scarborough, we may well need a decent cushion as we venture into Yorkshire.
September will whisk us across the Pennines to the mysterious climes of Old Trafford. With nine wins and two draws from the last eleven Tests in Manchester, you could be forgiven for thinking that this is a home banker, but in actual fact those two draws came against Australia, and England are winless in the Ashes at Old Trafford since 1981, when they claimed the urn following Botham's six-smashing second-innings century and a spirited Aussie chase led by Border and Yallop. With early autumn conditions potentially a factor, it'll be on the hosts to dig deep and break the thirty-eight-year Lancashire drought.
And, weather permitting, the Ashes will draw to its latest-ever conclusion in mid-September at the traditional finishing post of the Oval, where England haven't covered themselves in glory in recent times. Comprehensive victories against South Africa and India the last two summers may point to a change in their South London form, but the record remains just three wins in seven, with Australia triumphing by an innings in 2015, and England's only Ashes success of the 21st century coming in 2009. Don't let it come down to this one, lads.