[madsteve]

USPGA Championship

Tricky final major of the season so let's try & narrow it down a bit.

The favourites are D Johnson 10/1, McIlroy 10/1, Day 10/1, Stenson 16/1, Speith 16/1, Mickelson 25/1, Garcia 33/1, Scott 35/1, Rose 35/1, Fowler 40/1 & Watson 40/1.

All the above are possibles but I think we rule out McIlroy, Speith & Mickelson on price and Day, Scott, Rose & Fowler on form.

Previous winners of this event tend to have good previous form in this event with 7 of the last 10 winners having previously finished in the top ten. All of the last ten winners were aged between 23 & 37. Eight of the last ten winners were ranked in the top 25. Six of the last ten winners were ranked in the top five. Nine of the previous ten winners had already won on tour that season. Nine of the last ten winners had a top ten finish in one of their two last starts. Five of last ten winners had a win in one of their previos two starts. Seven of last ten winners had a top ten finish in a major already that season.

Here are my selections:

Dustin Johnson 10/1
Henrik Stenson 16/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Gary Woodland 150/1
Keegan Bradley 160/1
Soren Kjeldsen 200/1

I think that gives us a good portfolio against the rest of the field. McIlroy could bust the field and Mickelson could have a final hoorah on a course he likes but Dustin holds more tour wins than any other players over the last five years with a winning score of less than -10 (which will most likely happen here), Stenson will win if he plays like he did at Troon, Garcia is the master of consistency & sure to be close. My other picks are good value for their chances.

There are others that could be picked for value: JB Hlomes 70/1, Danny Willett 90/1, Rafael Cabrera Bello 150/1 & Andrew Johnston 300/1.

This will be a tough course. Hitting the fairways is so important so while distance is important, accuracy is more important. Should be an enjoyable four days and hopefully with a winner or at least a couple of places.

Good Luck!