[madsteve]

We have four clear favourites ahead of the rest of the field - Day 9/1, D Johnson 9/1, McIlroy 10/1 & Speith 12/1. I have a long term bet on Day at 18/1 and prefer to have more shots at longer prices. For what it is worth, I think Dustin is the best bet of these four as he is very much in form whilst having all the attributes to master the course. Day hasn't found his usual consistency and McIlroy & Speith would need to be close to 20/1 to interest me here. Can go with one as a main bet with a few back up bets. If so, it has to be Dustin.

Here are my thoughts on the leading contenders in a few words:

Day - quality but not at best
Dustin - form horse, worthy favourite, has major in bag
McIlroy - inconsistent
Speith - lost his mojo
Scott 25/1 - possible but doesn't jump out at me
Garcia 28/1 - right profile but usually the bridesmaid
Stenson 33/1 - often thereabouts but rarely there
Grace 33/1 - meets the profile, possible winner
Fowler 33/1 - one day but probably not this year
Rose 35/1 - not in best form but meets the profile
Mickelson 45/1 - maybe one major left in him
Westwood 50/1 - meets the profile, could be his time
Oosthuizen 50/1 - reasonable chance
Lowry 50/1 - may need another year
Kaymer 50/1 - could be close but unlikely winner
Willett 60/1 - inconsistent but at a fair price

Here are my dozen to beat the other 140 and even then we might not even pick up a place on a course where one bad shot can cost you your chances.

Dustin Johnson 9/1

Dustin is the form player in the world right now & has got the monkey of not having won a major off his back. He has the power to blow everyone away and is looking better around the greens as well.

Brandon Grace 33/1

Grace meets the profile here. He is the right age, he is in form, he has a win this season & 20th last year. He has been in contention in several majors and this could be his week.

Justin Rose 40/1

Not in the best of form but is the right age. A tenth placed finish at the Masters shows that he can lift his game for the big event.

Lee Westwood 50/1

Meets all the criteria. The right age, in form, finished in top 15 in five of his last six events. Could just do a Darren Clarke.

Louis Oosthuizen 55/1

The right age, two top 25 finishes in this year's majors, an Open win plus a win this season. Could be close.

Graeme McDowell 100/1

18th at the US Open & on a course that should suit him. Tenth last week.

Brandt Snedeker 100/1

Tenth in the Masters, has a win this season (in windy conditions) & is the right age to claim a major.

Jim Furyk 100/1

This is the sort of course where Furyk can compete with the big hitters by staying clear of trouble. Second at the US Open.

Alex Noren 100/1

Been following him this season & he is in top form with two wins in the last month including the Scottish Open. Likes the conditions.

Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1

Starting to mix it with the big guys. 17th at the Masters. Five top ten finishes this year. Value at the price.

Ernie Els 150/1

Past his best now but still can pull it out for a major. Loves the conditions. One last hurrah?

William McGirt 300/1

A long shot but has the ability to put four rounds together when he needs it. The next Todd Hamilton?


Despite this many selections, we might miss altogether as the following all have their chances: Scott, Kaymer, Willett, Kuchar, Schwartzel, Matsuyama, Leishman, Piercy, Harrington, Rahm, Olesen, Haas, Knost, Shinkwin and we still might have missed the winner.

Good Luck!

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Here are a few shots for FRL at decent prices:

Paul Casey 80/1
Alex Noren 80/1
Marc Leishman 80/1
Scott Piercy 100/1
Ryan Palmer 150/1
Colt Knost 200/1

Good Luck!