[madsteve]

The Masters

My favourite tournament of the year and one where I have been very succcessful in the past with winners with Speith, Bubba, Scott, Mickelson, Cabrera (plus a RU), O Meara & Tiger several times. In fact I started my Blue Square (remember them) bankroll with a free bet on the Masters, getting a place at 33/1 on Luke Donald plus £30 free bets for each hole in one - there were three that year.

Usually I go in with a firm idea of my player(s) but this year is different with little to choose between a dozen good candidates. My bets are going to be relatively small although I have decent ante post prices on Scott (28/1) & Day (18/1) taken when they were both off the boil which means I already have some value.

The Augusta course favours big hitters, GIR players and putters. Tha ability to put long irons into the right spots to chase shots on the par fives is crucial and that makes it relatively easy to rule out over half the field at a stroke. The problem is that most of the better players tick the boxes.

Also, experience is key here. First time players rarely do well. The last first time winner was Fully Zoeller in 1979. While defending the title is tough, going back and winning again does happen a lot as the cream often reaches the top here.

Cases can be argued for most of the top dozen in the betting so lets have a look at a few plusses & minuses.

I think we have to look at the value of the prices available and it is hard to see flaws in the bookies prices although the eight places on SKY Bet is a great offer.

Day (7/1), McIlroy (8/1), Speith (10/1) & Mickelson (20/1) represent poor value. They all have chances & I am happy to be on Day at double that price but 7/1 is skinny. There are too many questions about McIlroy & Speith to go at these prices. Speith's figures around the green are just nowhere near good enough to give him a tilt here and McIlroy still has question marks surrounding his putting. Mickelson looks in good shape and at 33/1, I would be punting but 20/1 is too tight for me.

Scott is about right at 12/1. He is a previous winner, is in form and meets most of the criteria to win it. Happy to be on at more than double that price but still think he has a great chance.

Bubba is similar to Scott. About right at 12/1. A previous winner and in form. There have been questions about his health but he has the ability to switch quickly to the golf after off course issues so not too bothered there. A great chance.

Fowler is probably the favourite to be a first time winner and meets most criteria and is priced right at 16/1. His form is up & down but if it is an "up week" then he will be close.

Dustin is 18/1 but he isn't a winner & bottles it when he gets close to a major. He has the atributes but I feel he will fall short. A great possiblitlity for FRL though as he has a habit of starting well in recent majors.

Rose meets most of the criteria and has three top ten finishes here. Can he win? His form suggests not but he could just jump into top gear like Scott & Day have in the last month and take the title.

After that, we are looking at medium to long shots and there are a few that I like.

Patrick Reed is in good form with two consecutive Top Ten finishes & looks ideal for the demands of the course. He has two previous appearances and is value each way at 45/1.

Brandt Snedeker at 55/1 is value. Loved the way he won the Farmer Insurance in February and feel that he could be the one to break through this week.

Rafael Cabrera Bello is one that doesn't meet all the criteria but is on a roll at the moment so might be worth a punt even as a rookie here at 110/1. He has improved around the greens this season so might surprise everyone if he gets on a roll.

Bill Haas is a lively outsider at 110/1. He has three consecutive top twenty finishes here and is in form so a top ten finish is likely.

It is the Masters so Angel Cabrera has to be considered. If one player over performs at Augusta then Cabrera is your man. He might be 46 but I have cashed on him twice at triple figure prices here when he was written off. He might do nothing but he might do a Red Rum and have one more day in the sun. A small investment at 200/1 is a must for me.

There are other long shots worthy of consideration - Wiesberger, Willett, Sullivan, Grillo & Dechambeau. I would be looking to swerve players like Stenson, Garcia and most rookies, who have little chance.

I feel the five highlighted give me a decent portfolio to back up my ante post bets on Day & Scott. There are a few decent bets to be had in other markets though.

I like a FRL bet but am not convinced of the advantages of tee times this year. Maybe an early start is worth half a shot but not enough to rule anyone out. I think 16/1 on Dustin Johnson is a fair price.

I like a bet in the "Top Continental European" market because I am anti the two market leaders - Stenson & Garcia. Don't get me wrong, both could be in the top ten but neither are reliable which makes this market value for the other players. I am writing off Langer, Langasque & Kjeldsen. Dubuisson & Lingmerth aren't consistent enough and Kaymer isn't enough of a winner for me. That leaves two candidates - RCB & Weisberger. So small investments on RCB at 8/1 & Weisberger at 12/1.

Some three ball winners for today - Wiesberger (Evens), Hoffman (Evens), Fowler (3/4), Mickelson (11/8), Rose (Evens), Scott (6/5), Horschel (11/10), Day (5/6), Willett (8/5). A few singles, a few multiples and a 700/1 rollup.

Good Luck!