[madsteve]

Football League Bets

Four good bets for tonight with one particularly outstanding.

Shrewsbury v Rochdale

This should be a high corners match. The Shrews last four at home have all cleared the 10.5 corner line at an average of 13.75 while Dale's last nine away average 13.22 corners with six going over 10.5 Corners. Bet Two Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 1.975.

Southend v Crewe

Should be high goals here. The Shrimpers last six at home have all gone over 2.5 goals at an average of 3.67 goals per match while five of the Alex's last seven on the road have cleared this line at an average of 3.86 goals per match. Bet Four Points on Over 2,5 Goals at 1.95.

Walsall v Scunthorpe

This should be a low corners match. The Saddlers' last seven home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 7.43 corners per match while the 14 of the Iron's 16 away matches have failed to reach this line at an average of 8.69. Bet Six Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85.

Carlisle v Leyton O

This should also be a low corners match. Carlisle's last eight home matches have all failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 7.75. Nine of the O's last ten away matches have also dropped short of this line at an average of 8.2 Corners per game. Bet Eight Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.90.

Correct Score Bets

Bradford v Colchester 2-0 3-0
Barnet v Plymouth 1-0 1-1
Bristol R v Hartlepool 2-0 2-1
Crawley v Newport 0-1 1-1

Good Luck!

Great Night & 10.25 Points profit with both big bets winning - mortgage paid!

Correct score at Barnet as well.

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WGC Cadillac Championship

Some weeks the bets jump out at you but this is one of those weeks where they don't really. We can probably eliminate 75% of the field reasonably easily but after that, it is possible to argue a good case for most of the rest.

This tournament is played on the Doral Course (often known as the Blue Monster), which clearly favours the big hitters and 48 of the World Top 50 are competing here in the toughest field so far of 2016. McIlroy heads the betting at 10/1 with Bubba, Dustin, Scott, Speith, Day, Fowler, Stenson & Rose not far behind. Making a long list was easy; selecting the winner is a fair bit tougher.

We have many years on this course so plenty of form to go on & driving distance has provided most of the winners and pretty much none of the other performance stats comes close in finding a winner. However, in 2014 the course was redesigned, making it much tougher but still favouring the big hitters. There have been some adjustments for this year, most significantly dropping several bunkers back 20-40 yards to catch the big hitters drives. How much effect this has is unknown.

Last season's big three are here but none of them has set the world alight this season although I have to admit to being tempted by Rory at a double figures price. One thing that I have noticed about golfers who do well in this event is that they are invariably golfers who went into this event in form. It is not a course that favours first time players.

So we are looking for big hitters, a good course record and good current form.

I think we have to bypass McIlroy, Speith, Day & Fowler here; the first three on grounds of form and Fowler because he struggles on this course. My problem has been chopping my long list of ten down.

Bubba Watson 12/1

There are never any guarantees with Bubba but his chances this week are as good as ever. He blows hot and cold but he appears to be blowing hot at the moment so it is the right time to side with him here. He come off the back of a win and has a 2nd & 3rd here since the course redesigned. If he is on it, should go very close.

Adam Scott 12/1

Scott made my long list last week but I decided to go only with triple figure priced players & missed out. This week, he makes my short list. He has always tended to win in clusters and his current form is irresistable. On top of his win last week, he has two runner up finishes in his previous three events. He also has two top five finishes in this event in the last three years. Put this together & he should be there or thereabouts.

JB Holmes 30/1

Should have won here last year but let a five shot lead slip on the final day. Looks ripe for a win with a lowest place of 11th from his four starts this year. Should be able to boom it down the fairways here & is a more than fair price.

Louis Oosthuizen 40/1

Think this is a great price for a player ideally suited by the course & bang in form. In four starts this year he has finished 12th, 7th & 1st, winning in Perth last week. It was also the way he won that impressed me. His swing got progressively more relaxed with each round which will be ideal on this course. He finished 6th here last year and I expect him to go even better this year.

Danny Willett 70/1

If one player is overpriced here it is Willett. He is now ranked 15 in the world (rightly so) yet is 26th in the betting & that is on a course that is perfect for the long hitting Sheffielder. He is picking his events this year so will be going for the win. He won in Dubai four weeks ago so is in good nick plus he was 12th here a year ago on his debut and I expect a top five finish if he gets a decent start.

The other five players that I had in consideration this week were Dustin Johnson 12/1, Henrik Stenson 25/1, Brandt Snedeker 70/1, Andy Sullivan 125/1 & Scott Hend 400/1.

Have gone for three FRL bets:

Danny Willett 66/1
Andy Sullivan 80/1
Scott Hend 150/1

All start early and all can get out of the traps quickly.