01-02-2016, 19:53
Dubai Desert Classic
A decent quality field with Rory McIlroy a strong 5/2 favourite with only Stenson at 10/1 below 20/1. Rory is a justifiable favourite and has all the credentials to win it. I really cannot go at 5/2 when it just takes one form player to beat him as Rickie Fowler did two weeks ago. So I am really looking for a few players to take him on and give us a good chance of another decent price winner.
We know what is required on this course as we have plenty of data from previous years. This course favours big drivers, GIR and all round & putting accuracy. Driving Accuracy & Scrambling appear to be far less important.
Thorbjorn Olesen 40/1
Was very impressed with Olesen last week and with a bit more luck with his putts, he could have been the winner. He was third here three years ago & 5th two years ago so likes the course. His GIR is good & his driving decent enough that he could be the one this week if he can get his putts to drop.
Rafa Carera Bello 35/1
Won here in 2012 and was second last week so could be his opportunity. Has great GIR figures. Questions about his bottle when close but faired well last week under pressure.
Thomas Pieters 35/1
The arguments for Pieters are good on this course despite struggling last week. He is ideally suited here & was second two weeks ago. Decent value.
Stephen Gallacher 70/1
There are big arguments both for and against here but at 70/1, I have to be in. Gallacher won here in 2013 & 2014, was second in 2012 & third last year. He just loves this course. Otherwise there is little to support him but I just love his course form too much at this price.
Alex Noten 75/1
Runner up here a year ago, Noren is starting to show the form that he threatened a year ago and could break through on a course that he knows and loves.
I will look at a couple of these players as FRL when the draw is announced but I will be looking for a player with an early start on Day One assuming the weather forecast stays as currently forecast.
Got FIRST & SECOND last week so hopefully more of the same this week.
A decent quality field with Rory McIlroy a strong 5/2 favourite with only Stenson at 10/1 below 20/1. Rory is a justifiable favourite and has all the credentials to win it. I really cannot go at 5/2 when it just takes one form player to beat him as Rickie Fowler did two weeks ago. So I am really looking for a few players to take him on and give us a good chance of another decent price winner.
We know what is required on this course as we have plenty of data from previous years. This course favours big drivers, GIR and all round & putting accuracy. Driving Accuracy & Scrambling appear to be far less important.
Thorbjorn Olesen 40/1
Was very impressed with Olesen last week and with a bit more luck with his putts, he could have been the winner. He was third here three years ago & 5th two years ago so likes the course. His GIR is good & his driving decent enough that he could be the one this week if he can get his putts to drop.
Rafa Carera Bello 35/1
Won here in 2012 and was second last week so could be his opportunity. Has great GIR figures. Questions about his bottle when close but faired well last week under pressure.
Thomas Pieters 35/1
The arguments for Pieters are good on this course despite struggling last week. He is ideally suited here & was second two weeks ago. Decent value.
Stephen Gallacher 70/1
There are big arguments both for and against here but at 70/1, I have to be in. Gallacher won here in 2013 & 2014, was second in 2012 & third last year. He just loves this course. Otherwise there is little to support him but I just love his course form too much at this price.
Alex Noten 75/1
Runner up here a year ago, Noren is starting to show the form that he threatened a year ago and could break through on a course that he knows and loves.
I will look at a couple of these players as FRL when the draw is announced but I will be looking for a player with an early start on Day One assuming the weather forecast stays as currently forecast.
Got FIRST & SECOND last week so hopefully more of the same this week.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.