[madsteve]

Alfred Dunhill Championship

Just days after McIlroy won the final event of the 2015 season and the Race To Dubai, the 2016 season begins in South Africa this week at Leopard Creek in Malelane.

The field looks pretty weak apart from the big name South Africans - Grace, Schwartzel & Oosthuizen who are all single figure prices. In many ways it is like last week as the first decision is whether to go with the three favourites or oppose them.

This event has been held on this course for 12 consecutive years so we have plenty of form in the book. The Gary Player designed course primarily favours players that can make GIR and putt well but driving distance appears to be more advantageous than accuracy.

While Oosthuizen has a poor record here & is easy to oppose, Grace won here last year & finished 3rd in the R2D & Schwartzel has won here three times including 2012 & 2013 and he finished 4th last week in Dubai. However, I am going for some value because with three players in single figures and a massive field, there are some good prices to be had.

Lee Slattery 50/1

Slattery says this is his favourite course on the circuit and his game is ideally suited as evidenced by his second place here in 2007. He has stepped up a level this year, winning the Russian Open and was back to his best last week in Dubai, playing the final 24 holes in 13 under par. In this field, he can definately get a place and is as well placed as anyone to beat the three big names.

Hennie Otto 70/1

Otto has a decent record here with four top ten finishes here including a win back in 2003. His games is suited and the price is fair.

Thomas Aiken 50/1

Two top five finishes in this event and with most of his best results in South Africa, Aiken can give us a run at a big price.

Trevor Fisher Jnr 50/1

He picked up his first European Tour win last season and was 4th here last year. Finished 3rd in his last event, the Portugal Masters so is in decent form.

Of the leading three, I prefer Schwartzel but small bets to take on the big three this week. Might find another one or two to add on tomorrow.

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A full programme of matches in L1 & L2 tonight, from which I have picked the following for Correct Score Bets:

Bury v Scunthorpe 2-1 3-1
Port Vale v Blackpool 1-0 2-0
Wigan v Burton 1-0 2-0
Oxford v Newport 1-0 1-1

We are currently running at a profit of £182.37 this season to level £10 stakes.

183

Two winners tonight:

Port Vale 2-0 Blackpool
Oxford 1-1 Newport

Takes our profit to £285.37  for the season so far on these bets.

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Football League Bets

Quite a decent set of fixtures tonight and an opportunity to get stuck in.

Peterboro v Barnsley

There should be goals here. Matches at London Road are feauring more shots than any other ground in England at professional level as Graham Westley tries to meet his promises. The Posh average over 19 attempts per home game since August while conceding on average over 15 attempts per game. The last five matches have all gone over 2.5 Goals and average five goals per game. Barnsley's away matches aren't as high scoring but do match up pretty well with six of their nine matches going over 2.5 Goals. Bet FOUR POINTS on Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74.

Swindon v Walsall

This looks like a low corners match to me. Seven of Town's nine home matches have failed to reach 10.5 Corners at an average of 8.56 while six of Walsall's eight away matches have fallen short of this line at an average of 9.75. My only concern here is the number of 9 & 10 corner outcomes but still see decent value. Bet TWO POINTS on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.85

Accrington v Hartlepool

Sometimes you have to ride the wave and high goals at Accrington is the latest wave. Their last six home matches have finished 4-2 2-1 1-3 3-4 3-1 2-2. Pool's away record is only 5-4 in favour of overs but let's ride the wave. Bet TWO POINTS on Over 2.5 Goals at 2.02.

Bristol Rovers v Stevenage

This should be a high corners match. Stevenage's away record for high corners is outstanding and even at a line of 11.5, we would have won 7 times out of 9 on their games this season at an average of 13.57. Rovers match up reasonably well with 4 of their last 6 at home clearing this line. Bet TWO POINTS on Over 11.5 Corners at 5/6.

A more conservative option would be to to go over 11 corners with a draw no bet at 1.75 but I prefer the higher risk here as neither team has finished on 11 corners yet.

Good Luck!

Our big bet won, one was postponed & the other two lost giving us a small loss tonight.