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WGC Bridgestone (Day Four)
My picks:
Jim Furyk 30/1 +9 Tied 42nd
Bill Haas 66/1 +7 Tied 38th
Scott Piercy 90/1 -5 2nd
A great tournament with Dustin Johnson outstanding in his final round of 66. In fact, he only put one foot wrong all day & looks in great shape for The Open next week. Day had a surprise collapse at the death but Piercey put up a great fight for us, losing by one shot & one position at 90/1. He will win soon around similar courses.
Add the profit to the two places in the French Open & we seem to be on a decent run at the moment.
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Scottish Open
Shane Lowry 20/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 30/1
David Lingmerth 35/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 70/1
Mike Lorenzo Vera 350/1
Good Luck!
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Scottish Open:
Patrick Reed 25/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1
Danny Lee 66/1
Jamie Lovemark 100/1
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Scottish Open (Day One)
An amazing day of golf with the wind making conditions close to impossible for the late starters. Scott Hend & Felipe Agular lead on -3 by one shot from eight players on -2. Unfortunately four of our players got the worst of the weather, leaving Lowry, Lingmerth & Olesen already just about out of it. Credit to Lorenzo Vera, who is only five shots off the lead despite playing in the worst weather. Notables include: Harrington -2, Sullivan -2, McDowell -2, Danny Lee -1, Grace -1, Donald -1, Kaymer Par, Knox Par, Pieters +1, Fitzpatrick +1, Warren +1, Reed +3, Stenson +4, Jaidee +5, Donaldson +8, Holmes +8, Lovemark +10. The cut line is currently +2, which is only five shots off the lead so anything could happen today. The weather could be crucial.
Shane Lowry 20/1 +5 Tied 103rd
Rafael Cabrera Bello 30/1 -1 Tied 11th
David Lingmerth 35/1 +10 Tied 147th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1 +4 Tied 89th
Thorbjorn Olesen 70/1 +6 Tied 113th
Mike Lorenzo Vera 350/1 +2 Tied 56th
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Scottish Open (Day Two)
Alex Noren leads by one on -8 from Lee & Pepperell. Other notables include: Grace -6, Harrington -6, McDowell -5, Sullivan -4, Kaymer -2, Knox -2, Warren -2, Pieters -1, Donald -1, Mickelson +1, Stenson +1, Reed +1, Fitzpatrick +3 (MC), Lovemark +6 (MC), Donaldson +11 (MC). Not a great run for our guys.
Shane Lowry 20/1 +6 Tied 109th
Rafael Cabrera Bello 30/1 Par Tied 36th
David Lingmerth 35/1 +10 Tied 136th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1 +3 Tied 77th
Thorbjorn Olesen 70/1 +8 Tied 125th
Mike Lorenzo Vera 350/1 -1 Tied 27th
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Scottish Open (Day Three)
Manassero leads by one on -11 from Hatton & Noren. Other notables include Lee -9, Sullivan -8, McDowell -8, Stenson -6, Harrington -5, Reed -4, Grace -4, Knox -4.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 30/1 -2 Tied 40th
Mike Lorenzo Vera 350/1 -3 Tied 25th
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It's The Open. Can we find the 2016 winner? What does it take to win this year?
The Open is back at Troon for the first time in 12 years and history shows us that every winner here since 1950 has been American - Palmer, Weiskopf, Watson, Calcavecchia, Leonard & Hamilton. I think the rest of the world has caught up the Americans since then so I don't feel this is that relevant a statistic apart from showing that Americans can handle links courses.
The course is set out with nine holes going one way then the other nine returning us to the clubhouse so the wind can have a big effect particularly if it changes mid round. Traditionally the opening nine is the easier here with the prevailing wind with the toughest holes coming after the turn. The only clue from the weather forecasts is that it may be particularly tricky late on on Friday.
There have been claims that golf has become a young man's game in the last few years but the recent Open winners suggest otherwise. The last ten winners have been Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington (twice), Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen, Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy & Zach Johnson which actually suggests that older golfers do relatively well in this event.
A more interesting fact about the previous Troon Open winners is that they had all won a tournament that season before the Open, suggesting that form is important.
A high %ge of recent Open winners have gone close previously so experience of being in contention could be important.
tbc
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13-07-2016, 11:33
(This post was last modified: 13-07-2016, 11:45 by madsteve.)
We have four clear favourites ahead of the rest of the field - Day 9/1, D Johnson 9/1, McIlroy 10/1 & Speith 12/1. I have a long term bet on Day at 18/1 and prefer to have more shots at longer prices. For what it is worth, I think Dustin is the best bet of these four as he is very much in form whilst having all the attributes to master the course. Day hasn't found his usual consistency and McIlroy & Speith would need to be close to 20/1 to interest me here. Can go with one as a main bet with a few back up bets. If so, it has to be Dustin.
Here are my thoughts on the leading contenders in a few words:
Day - quality but not at best
Dustin - form horse, worthy favourite, has major in bag
McIlroy - inconsistent
Speith - lost his mojo
Scott 25/1 - possible but doesn't jump out at me
Garcia 28/1 - right profile but usually the bridesmaid
Stenson 33/1 - often thereabouts but rarely there
Grace 33/1 - meets the profile, possible winner
Fowler 33/1 - one day but probably not this year
Rose 35/1 - not in best form but meets the profile
Mickelson 45/1 - maybe one major left in him
Westwood 50/1 - meets the profile, could be his time
Oosthuizen 50/1 - reasonable chance
Lowry 50/1 - may need another year
Kaymer 50/1 - could be close but unlikely winner
Willett 60/1 - inconsistent but at a fair price
Here are my dozen to beat the other 140 and even then we might not even pick up a place on a course where one bad shot can cost you your chances.
Dustin Johnson 9/1
Dustin is the form player in the world right now & has got the monkey of not having won a major off his back. He has the power to blow everyone away and is looking better around the greens as well.
Brandon Grace 33/1
Grace meets the profile here. He is the right age, he is in form, he has a win this season & 20th last year. He has been in contention in several majors and this could be his week.
Justin Rose 40/1
Not in the best of form but is the right age. A tenth placed finish at the Masters shows that he can lift his game for the big event.
Lee Westwood 50/1
Meets all the criteria. The right age, in form, finished in top 15 in five of his last six events. Could just do a Darren Clarke.
Louis Oosthuizen 55/1
The right age, two top 25 finishes in this year's majors, an Open win plus a win this season. Could be close.
Graeme McDowell 100/1
18th at the US Open & on a course that should suit him. Tenth last week.
Brandt Snedeker 100/1
Tenth in the Masters, has a win this season (in windy conditions) & is the right age to claim a major.
Jim Furyk 100/1
This is the sort of course where Furyk can compete with the big hitters by staying clear of trouble. Second at the US Open.
Alex Noren 100/1
Been following him this season & he is in top form with two wins in the last month including the Scottish Open. Likes the conditions.
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Starting to mix it with the big guys. 17th at the Masters. Five top ten finishes this year. Value at the price.
Ernie Els 150/1
Past his best now but still can pull it out for a major. Loves the conditions. One last hurrah?
William McGirt 300/1
A long shot but has the ability to put four rounds together when he needs it. The next Todd Hamilton?
Despite this many selections, we might miss altogether as the following all have their chances: Scott, Kaymer, Willett, Kuchar, Schwartzel, Matsuyama, Leishman, Piercy, Harrington, Rahm, Olesen, Haas, Knost, Shinkwin and we still might have missed the winner.
Good Luck!
Here are a few shots for FRL at decent prices:
Paul Casey 80/1
Alex Noren 80/1
Marc Leishman 80/1
Scott Piercy 100/1
Ryan Palmer 150/1
Colt Knost 200/1
Good Luck!
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Rory Mcilroy 10/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Andy Sullivan 66/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 70/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Jimmy Walker 200/1
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The Open (Day One)
Dustin Johnson 9/1 Par Tied 50th
Brandon Grace 33/1 -1 Tied 37th
Justin Rose 40/1 -3 Tied 11th
Lee Westwood 50/1 Par Tied 50th
Louis Oosthuizen 55/1 Par Tied 50th
Graeme McDowell 100/1 +4 Tied 122nd
Brandt Snedeker 100/1 +2 Tied 94th
Jim Furyk 100/1 +3 Tied 109th
Alex Noren 100/1 -1 Tied 37th
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1 -3 Tied 11th
Ernie Els 150/1 Par Tied 50th
William McGirt 300/1 +4 Tied 122nd
Most of our guys had a solid day but so much depended on the draw with the early afternoon players being favoured here. Mickelson leads by three on -8 from Reed & Kaymer. Other notables include Zach Johnson -4, Stenson -3, Garcia -3, Scott -2, Fowler -2, McIlroy -2, Bubba -1, Speith Par, Willett Par, Day +2, Fitzpatrick +2, Lowry +7.
Mickelson got the best of the weather with the wind dropping just as he turned to face the wind & he is good enough to defend that lead over the next three days. Reed was the most impressive of the early starters but the weather is likely to favour the same players again today so expect a few moves this morning.
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