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Arnold Palmer Invitational (Result)
Jason Day won it by one from Kevin Chappell. Our guys performed pretty well but once Day had taken charge of the event, it became tough to get within range.
Adam Scott 8/1 -9 Tied 12th
Paul Casey 50/1 -10 Tied 9th
William McGirt 80/1 +3 73rd
Scott Brown 100/1 -6 Tied 27th
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Lovemark got me a place, as for the rest, move onto the next tournament.
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WGC Match Play
A different challenge this week with match play. There are 16 groups of four players who play a round robin with the winners of each group going through to a knock out. The top 16 players have been seeded so it is a question of picking which players can come through and win seven matches in five days (can maybe get away with one loss or tie in opening three games).
This is being played at the Austin Country Club in Texas. All of the top 64 players are here with the exception of Stenson & Furyk so it will take a good performance to win.
This event tends to have quite a few upsets along the way but generally it is a top player that prevails. It is tricky on a different course to compare but generally good match play players do well as do form players. Seven rounds in five days also takes its toll so I would tend to go for younger players.
Rory McIroy 11/1
While Rory hasn't been brilliant recently, he has played some great rounds and has tended to throw it away with a couple of careless shots. In match play, he won't be penalised so heavily. Rory is a top match play player & won this event last year We get used to seeing Rory at 6/1 so I see 11/1 as value. It can all go wrong very quickly but Rory is the most likely winner.
Paul Casey 33/1
Casey put in a good show last week and is a good match play player. He also probably feels that he has something to prove. He has got to get past Jason Day in the group stages, which might be tough, but that is reflected in the price.
Patrick Reed 35/1
Another good match play player. Has to get past Mickelson in the group stages but feel he could go the whole way if he gets on a roll.
Mark Leishman 80/1
Has a decent match play record with recent wins against Speith & Kuchar. Reached the QF last year & is in better form now. Took the price before the draw was made and a good draw means his price has been cut.
Andy Sullivan 70/1
A good punt at this price. Sullivan is the type of player who can get on a roll. He has a decent group with Oosthuizen beatable in his group.
Also plenty of betting opportunities on groups & individual matches.
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Puerto Rico Open
Retief Goosen 40/1
Jhonattan Vegas 80/1
WGC
Bubba Watson 18/1
Hideki Matsuyama 28/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 125/1
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WGC Match Play
Group Winners:
Danny Willett 15/8
Hideki Matsuyama 7/5
Marc Leishman 13/5
Andy Sullivan 5/2
Paul Casey 5/2
Rickie Fowler 6/5
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 11/2
Patrick Reed 9/4
These seem the best value bets to me.
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25-03-2016, 13:06
(This post was last modified: 25-03-2016, 13:22 by madsteve.)
Football League Bets
Full list of fixtures today & tomorrow in L1 & L2 and a couple of excellent bets.
Barnsley v Scunthorpe
This should be a low corners match. Seven of the Tykes last 8 home matches have failed to reach 10.5 Corners while 15 of The Iron's 18 away matches have fallen short of this line. Bet Four Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 4/5.
Bradford v Millwall
Eleven of City's last 15 home matches have topped 10.5 Corners at an average of 12.27 whilw 12 of Millwall's 17 away matches have cleared this line at an average of 13.25. Interestingly no Millwall away match has had less than ten corners since August. Bet Six Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 8/11.
Accrington v Leyton O
We are shed loads up on Accrington matches this season & we should go to the well again as this looks pretty certain to be a low corners match. Bet365 have set the line at 9.5 but I still expect the corners to fail to reah this line. 11 of Accrington's 18 home matches have failed to reach this line at an average of 8.5 while 9 of Orient's last 12 away matches have fallen short of this line at an average of 7.5. Bet Six Points on Under 9.5 Corners at 5/6.
Morecambe v Plymouth
I favour low corners here as well. 11 of Morecambe's last 14 at home have failed to reach 10.5 Corners while 5 of Plymouth's last 9 have dropped short. Bet Two Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 4/5.
Correct Score Bets:
Colchester v Doncaster 2-0 2-1
Morecambe v Plymouth 2-1 1-2
Northampton v Newport 1-0 2-0
Wycombe v Mansfield 1-0 1-1
Good Luck!
WGC Match Play
Rory McIroy 11/1 (Two wins from two)
Paul Casey 33/1 (One half - out of it)
Patrick Reed 35/1 (two wins from two)
Mark Leishman 80/1 (one half - out of it)
Andy Sullivan 70/1 (two wins out of two)
McIlroy, Reed & Sullivan all effectively have knock out matches today where the winner goes through to the last 16. McIlroy faces Kevin Na, Red faces Phil Mickelson and Sullivan faces Louis Oosthuizen.
McIlroy was better yesterday and is growing into the tournament. He should be good enough to beat Na today and progress comfortably. Reed has been impressive in two easy matches so far and I expect his to edge out Mickelson today. Sullivan has the toughest task but this is where we hoped to be. He will need to be at his best but I think he has a great match play game so could make it as well.
No doubt that Zach Johnson has been the most impressive player so far with Speith, Haas, Koepka, Schwartzel, Day & Cabrero Bello also in great shape.
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WGC Match Play
Rory McIroy 11/1 Won his group, plays Zah Johnson today.
Paul Casey 33/1 Was ill so conceded.
Patrick Reed 35/1 Won his group, plays Dustin Johnson today.
Mark Leishman 80/1 out
Andy Sullivan 70/1 close but lost at death to Oosthuizen.
Two players through but they have to play the form players so far so today will be tough. If McIlroy wins, he gets an easier game on paper in QF although Reed probably plays Speith if beats Dustin.
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McIlroy won both his matches yesterday to reach the Semi Final against Jason Day. Oosthuizen plays Cabrera Bello in the other SF.
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Shell Houston Open
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 66/1
Jamie Lovemark 80/1
KJ Choi 100/1
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Shell Houston Open
Apologies for posting late.
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Brooks Koepka 30/1
Tony Finau 40/1
Cameron Tringale 66/1
Jonas Blixt 150/1
Good Luck!
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