[Owlkev71]

BMW Masters

Paul Casey T6
Sergio Garcia 1
Louis Oosthuizen T24
Thorbjorn Olesen 71
Rikard Karlberg T24

[madsteve]

OHL Classic

A mixed day for our players but with everyone closely bunched, pretty much everyone at par or better is in contention. Stefani is clearly our best bet, currently tied for the lead and we are on at 125/1.

Harris English 28/1 +1 Tied 99th

Charley Hoffman 40/1 Level Tied 83rd

Jhonattan Vegas 50/1 +1 Tied 99th

Shawn Stefani 125/1 -6 Tied 1st

Dawie Van Der Walt 200/1 -3 Tied 24th

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BMW Masters - Day Two

No doubt that the star of Day Two was Lucas Bjerregaard with a second consecutive round of 66, this time in tougher conditions. I have spoken previously of this player's quality but how final day nerves have cost him several times getting a maiden tour victory. Maybe this will be his tournament now that he has a clear three shot lead over the field. The other player that stood out was Peter Uihlein, who hit seven consecutive birdies in his 66.

Jaidee & Poulter showed consistency to suggest a weekend challenge while Garcia & An played disappointingly and will need to do better over the weekend.

Justin Rose 6/1 -5 Tied 12th
Branden Grace 18/1 -2 Tied 35th
Danny Willett 25/1 -3 Tied 28th
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1 -5 Tied 12th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50/1 +2 Tied 61st
Hao Tong Li 100/1 +1 Tied 51st

[Owlkev71]

OHL Classic:


Patton Kizzire   T5
Keegan Bradley   T9
Jason Dufner   T83
Kevin Streelman   T41
KJ Choi   T62
Martin Laird   T62

BMW Masters


Paul Casey T4
Sergio Garcia  T2
Louis Oosthuizen  T28
Thorbjorn Olesen  T61
Rikard Karlberg   T44

[madsteve]

Just one bet this weekend.

Gillingham v Bury

Two side who started the season well but are gradually slipping back towards their more expected position. Bury have had repeated high corner matches on their travels. Their last seven away corners totals have been 16-11-15-16-15-18-15. The Gills match up reasonably well with three of their last four at home going over 11 corners.

Bet Two Points on Over 11 Corners (DNB) at 1.975.

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OHL Classic Day Two

A mixed day for our players but with everyone closely bunched, pretty much everyone at -5 or better is in contention. Stefani is clearly our best bet, currently tied fourth and we are on at 125/1. apart from a double bogey on the 14th, he played pretty much perfectly.

Harris English 28/1 +1 Tied 97th

Charley Hoffman 40/1 -1 Tied 80th

Jhonattan Vegas 50/1 +4 Tied 122nd

Shawn Stefani 125/1 -9 Tied 4th

Dawie Van Der Walt 200/1 -2 Tied 66th

[madsteve]

BMW Masters - Day Three

Despite our players being a little off the pace, this is proving to be a fascinating event with several players up there who have proved to be flaky this season. Jaidee leads by one shot and I think that the 4/1 available on him now represents good value. I see An (8/1) as his main challenger, just one shot behind and playing pretty well. Garcia & Bjerregaard are also one shot back but looked far less convincing and both have shown that they struggle on Sundays.

Further back, Broberg & Reed hit 64s & Pieters hit a 63 to give them live outside chances if they can repeat it tomorrow.

Justin Rose 6/1 -10 Tied 13th
Branden Grace 18/1 -5 Tied 27th
Danny Willett 25/1 -5 Tied 27th
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1 -10 Tied 13th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50/1 -3 Tied 40th
Hao Tong Li 100/1 -3 Tied 40th

I am considering backing Jaidee & An against the field because I feel that the credentials of the closest challengers (Garcia & Bjerregaard) are questionable. In many ways I would love Bjerregaard to win because he is a real talent and needs a win to allow him to relax & show his true ability. Sadly I cannot see it happening here.

There are a few lively outsiders that could get in the shake up with a 64 or 65, most notably Broberg, Casey, Pieters, Rose & Fitzpatrick but if any of the leading four shoot 66 then it pretty much rules out the rest.

The other option is to go for an each way bet on players like Pieters at 50/1 or Fitzpatrick at 80/1.

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Correct Score Bets:

Bradford v Crewe 1-0 2-0
Swindon v Scunthorpe 1-2 2-2
Luton v Barnet 1-1 2-1
Oxford v Cambridge 0-0 1-0

Good Luck!

[madsteve]

OHL Classic Day Three

Shawn Stefani 125/1 -11 Tied 8th

Dawie Van Der Walt 200/1 -9 Tied 18th

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Just one bet this weekend.

Gillingham v Bury

Two side who started the season well but are gradually slipping back towards their more expected position. Bury have had repeated high corner matches on their travels. Their last seven away corners totals have been 16-11-15-16-15-18-15. The Gills match up reasonably well with three of their last four at home going over 11 corners.

Bet Two Points on Over 11 Corners (DNB) at 1.975.

11 Corners - No Bet

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Correct Score Bets:

Bradford 2-0 Crewe WON
Swindon 2-1 Scunthorpe
Luton 2-0 Barnet
Oxford 1-0 Cambridge WON

Profit Today £74

Running Profit £186.37

[madsteve]

BMW Masters - Day Four

A brilliantly exciting final day. I was correct that Garcia & Bjerregaard would bottle it and with Jaidee & An both missing putts to make the play off, it was left to Broberg & Reed to go head to head for the title. The contrast was compelling - the cool Swede against the fiery American in fading light. Broberg played the Playoff hole perfectly and maybe another star is born.

Justin Rose 6/1 -15 Tied 7th
Branden Grace 18/1 -9 Tied 22nd
Danny Willett 25/1 -7 Tied 28th
Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1 -12 Tied 13th
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 50/1 -6 Tied 31st
Hao Tong Li 100/1 -4 Tied 41st

Our guys did all right overall and Rose would have won but for a poor second round. In the end, he was just too far back to make the play off. No-one could argue though that Broberg was a worthy winner.

[madsteve]

A poor week last week so looking to bounce back as the Race To Dubai reaches its conclusion this week.

DP World Tour Championship, Dubai

This is a tricky betting event because we have three players at single figures prices, who all have outstanding chances. Alternatively, look for outsiders who might put in a great show. McIlroy is best priced 5/1 with Stenson 13/2 & Rose 8/1. Probably have to pick one of these three then go with some lively outsiders.

This is wide open Greg Norman designed course which favours big hitters. All six winners of this event on this course have been in the top ten for driving distance. It also appears to favour putting accuracy with five of the six winners being in the top ten here as well.

Henrik Stenson 13/2

Not one of my favourite players but appears to have a better case in his favour than McIlroy & Rose. He has won this event in 2013 & 2014. He arrives here as he did a year ago seeking his first win of the season & he appears to be running into form with three seconds and a third in his last seven tournaments. The price appears skinny but the stars are all aligning for a win this weekend.

Victor Dubuisson 25/1

He is ideally suited to this course & has shown his credentials finishing third here in 2013 & tied second last year. He is back to his best with a win in Turkey last month so at this price is good value.

Thomas Pieters 66/1

Pieters has won twice for us this season at similar prices and I cannot resist at 66/1. He hasn't played here before but he is a massive hitter and a decent putter so meets the profile to win.

Kristoffer Broberg 80/1

Got his debut win last week and we have seen a number of players follow up debut wins in their next performance. No great course track record but a value for money price.

Good Luck!

[madsteve]

RSM Classic

This is an interesting tournament where picking a winner from a field of 156 players looks very difficult. The betting is headed by Zach Johnson, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner & Matt Kucher, all at double figures prices. This is the sixth running of this event (formally the McGladrey Classic) at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. There is a change to the format this year with all players playing one of their opening two rounds on the Plantation Course, while their other rounds will be played on the Seaside Course, which has been used fully in previous years.

We are guessing with the Plantation Course but its set up, layout & distance is similar to the Seaside Course so it is probably fair to say that basing judgement on the Seaside Course will be sound here.

A look at the five previous winners suggests that the big names don't appear to fair particularly well here. All five winners here kicked off at 50/1 or greater with two being available at triple figure prices.

The courses are relatively short and driving distance & accuracy doesn't seem to be any advantage here. It is all about play around the green and particularly putting. It is an exposed course and the weather is forcasted to be breezy so the ability to play in adverse conditions could be important. Course knowledge could also be useful as two of the previous winners (Kirk & Slocum) are both locals as it appears that it takes a while to work out how to play this course.

Three of the previous five winners came top on performance on Par 4 holes while another came fourth so the likelihood is that the winner will be a Par 4 specialist.

Zach Johnson is local and has played the course many times but he is involved in organising the event and has missed the cut twice & not made the top ten in five attempts. Other local players include Matt Kucher, Harris English & Russell Henley.

Graeme McDowell 28/1

Can't help but be impressed by GMac's performance in winning last week at the OHL Classic. He hit his first shot out of bounds but recovered to lead after two rounds. Hit his first shot of the third round out of bounds but recovered to make a playoff then hit the sweetest approach to birdie the first playoff hole & take the title. His post tournament interview was candidly revealing when he admitted to wondering if he would ever win again. That weight has been lifted off his shoulders and he is best player in this field on a course ideally suited to his game. Can never be certain which way it will go after a win but is great value here.

Patton Kizzire 40/1

Patton lives locally and has a good record on this course, leading his college team to victory here in 2007. In a recent interview, he said that Sea Island is his favourite course. He finished second at the Shiners & fifth at the Sanderson Farms so is in form on a couse he loves. Could go close.

Johnson Wagner 66/1

Another player with local connections who trains at Sea Island. Is starting to show form, finishing 15th & 8th in the last two weeks and playing on his home course could see it happen. His game is suited for the course and he tops the PGA Tour list stats for short putts and scrambling - important attributes here.

Brice Garnett 100/1

Another player with great putting & scrambling stats so ideally suited here. Two tournaments & two top ten finishes this season make him excellent value.

Will MacKenzie 175/1

Looking for a long priced winner then MacKenzie could be your man. His record isn't outstanding but he does come alive on this course, evidenced best a year ago when he was beaten in a playoff by Robert Streb.

Others worth considering are Streb, English, Kirk, Kokrak, Streelman, Stroud, Stegmaier, Love III & Blixt, several at big prices. Tough to pick a winner here but think we have a team at good prices to take on the favourites and with Paddy Power offering seven places this week, great each way value.

[madsteve]

Just noticed that you can get 11/10 on McIlroy for a Top Five finish at the DP World Tour Championship.

This has to be amazing value considering he has five top five finishes out of six in this event and also five top five finishes out of six in the UAE. He also has the incentive of being the R2D Champion, which will stop any potential blow ups.

This looks like a good opportunity to lump on.