[Thurnscoe_OWL]

We could win all these games, scrape the play offs and get promoted (unlikely I know ).
What I'm saying is, we can't go into games expecting a draw/loss. There is still team pride to play for so lets go out and try to get as many points as we can.

[madsteve]

I have copied this from an article by Sean Ingle. He says what I have been thinking for the last couple of years. I don't expect many to agree with me or him but I think this is the best route for Wednesday to take to get back to competing at the top end of the PL.

"It was enough to make those football pundits who revel in the old days and old ways collectively choke on their beans and sausages. Brentford would, a club statement announced, be parting company with their respected manager Mark Warburton, switching to a continental structure with a head coach and sporting director, and using mathematical modelling to help recruit players. The response of one former professional, Micky Quinn, was not untypical. “They want a head coach and mathematical modelling … Ha, ha, good luck with that.”
What Quinn may not realise is that the blueprint for Brentford’s future is already being stress-tested 800 miles away at FC Midtjylland, who lead Denmark’s Superliga by six points and are on course for the first trophy in their history. And who is the majority shareholder in Midtjylland? Matthew Benham, the former hedge fund manager and professional gambler who also owns Brentford.
When Benham invested £6.2m in Midtjylland last July he appointed Rasmus Ankersen – a 31-year-old former player, Uefa A-licence coach, entrepreneur and author – as the chairman. Ankersen promised to challenge the conventional ways of running a football club and to put Midtjylland on the map. He is doing just that. “When I am being provocative I tell people that our coach, Glen Riddersholm, will never be sacked based on our league position,” Ankersen says. Instead Ankersen tells him he will be judged on whether he achieves certain key performance indicators (KPIs) which, over the long term, the club believes are more indicative of success.
Ankersen won’t reveal everything about the club’s use of data, but does say that Midtjylland pay particular attention to what he calls “dangerous situations” in games. Interestingly, they are a client of E4talent, which tracks shots in the “danger zone” – an area that stretches from the start of the six-yard box to the edge of the penalty area – from which 77% of Premier League goals are scored.
Set pieces are another focus. Midtjylland have scored 15 goals from set pieces from 17 games, an average of 0.88 per game, the second highest in Europe. Only Atlético Madrid, with an average of 1.04 a game, are more prolific. The highest in the Premier League are Arsenal with 15 in 26 games, an average of 0.57.
Data also informs what Midtjylland’s coaches say to the players and the press. As Ankersen explains, at half-time the coaches are sent texts before they speak to players outlining how the team are measuring up to certain key metrics. “These effective KPIs give a more accurate message to the players and the press,” he insists.
Too often in football, the result determines the narrative – for managers, reporters and fans. Ankersen dismisses this as facile. “For instance, when we played at home against the bottom team, we won 2-1,” he says. “But our model massively downgraded us because we were super lucky. A lot of people said well done but it was a terrible performance – that is the message we should convey. No one wants to say they were lucky when they win. But in football success turns luck into genius.”
Midtjylland’s success is also partly down to their excellent youth academy, which Ankersen helped get off the ground a decade ago: usually five or six starters in their games are home-grown. The emergence of the Danish under-21 international Pione Sisto, who has been linked with many top sides in Europe, is another factor. But using mathematical modelling as well as traditional scouting has helped the club acquire players they believe are undervalued, including Kris Olsson from Arsenal, Marco Ureña from Kuban Krasnodar and Jim Larsen from Club Brugge.
This is fascinating, radical stuff, and it is driven by Benham. Ankersen remembers that when he met him, he asked him whether Brentford would get promoted from League One. “From a football guy you would expect a yes or no, or an answer with emotion,” he says. “But he just looked at me and said: ‘There is a 42.3% chance that we will go up.’ I knew then he thought very differently about football.”
Of course he does. Benham has made fortunes betting on football, but he has not done it by following the sheep who place long-odds accumulators and trust in blind luck. Instead he has developed a deeper understanding about why teams win matches, constructed statistical models and used them to exploit inefficiencies and errors in bookmaker prices.
Can such a data-driven approach really be applied to running a football club? We are about to find out. But it seems perfectly reasonable to expect that by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the transfer market and elsewhere, adopting the best practice of clubs such as Southampton and employing super-smart data analysts, Brentford and Midtjylland can punch further above their weight. Ankersen certainly has no doubts. “In the past year I have learned that the brightest guys in football work in the betting industry, because they are much more rational and less biased,” he says.
None of us know what will happen next. But we can say this. Brentford and Midtjylland are clearly going the right way and their stories over the next few years will make fascinating viewing. And while Benham has taken some flak in recent days, history teaches us that in the long run it is unwise to bet against him."

[madsteve]

There is now a greater understanding of football that a lot of old school traditionalists cannot comprehend.

80% of decision making can be made based upon statistics and this is already working in Denmark. I make a living on football betting by following statistics and I have felt for several years that applying the same logic to football management would make sense.

Bournemouth employ six full time Analysts to give them all the information on the opposition and their own team. Brentford employ four. Wednesday don't employ any. Maybe this is why Bournemouth & Brentford can over achieve while we under achieve.

[St Charles Owl]

This is basically following the Billy Bean "Moneyball" model at the Oakland Athletics in Major League Baseball over here. As more and more football games are videoed from multiple angles the quality and relevance of statistics is there for everyone to use if they want to. For me this is also the way forward if we as a club are going to set some type of consistent style, formations, tactics etc up and down the club. It is not the be all and end all for everything but it does give a good barometer when analysing performances or signing players and if this can add 20-30% effectiveness to our performances then it is worth doing.

[madsteve]

This is basically following the Billy Bean "Moneyball" model at the Oakland Athletics in Major League Baseball over here.  As more and more football games are videoed from multiple angles the quality and relevance of statistics is there for everyone to use if they want to.  For me this is also the way forward if we as a club are going to set some type of consistent style, formations, tactics etc up and down the club.  It is not the be all and end all for everything but it does give a good barometer when analysing performances or signing players and if this can add 20-30% effectiveness to our performances then it is worth doing.

It is a lot more than adding 20% to performances.

It sets the whole philosophy of the Club. It models tactics across all teams down to juniors. It is the starting point for player recruitment.

There will be sceptics but it is the future.

[Washington]

This is basically following the Billy Bean "Moneyball" model at the Oakland Athletics in Major League Baseball over here.  As more and more football games are videoed from multiple angles the quality and relevance of statistics is there for everyone to use if they want to.  For me this is also the way forward if we as a club are going to set some type of consistent style, formations, tactics etc up and down the club.  It is not the be all and end all for everything but it does give a good barometer when analysing performances or signing players and if this can add 20-30% effectiveness to our performances then it is worth doing.

You beat me to it SCO. Let's hope Chansiri reads MS post too.

TBH I think the Seahawks are breaking the NFL moulds and norms for recruitment which has led to their outstanding performances over the last 3 seasons.

[St Charles Owl]

In a lot of ways American sports lend themselves to statistics better than football does so these sort of methods have been used over here a lot. In the NFL this week they have whats called the combine, where all the best college football players perform set physical tests in front of the pro-teams before the draft in April. I am a believer in using everything at your disposal to make a decision on a player but for me this should only be one of a few ways of assessing performance of the team or an individual player. I know Megson liked the eye test whereas Laws was more into stats, both have their place and one shouldn't be used at the expense of the other!

I do think MM started us down this track. He resurrected the scouting network and academy, key aspects for any club who wants to succeed at any level. He also made SG the head coach rather than the manager, I just don't think he wanted to spend the money to complete the project with a Director of Football and other personnel knowing he was actively looking to sell the club. Hopefully the new guys are open to more modern ideas, the days of Cloughy ranting at a player or Fergie throwing a tea cup are over, new methods need to be used to develop players and show them where they can improve. As you say MS, a lot of traditional method fans and managers will scoff at this sort of thing, but the information is there and if used correctly can improve player development/recruitment and team performance, even if it is only used at the first team level it will have an impact on the team.

[St Charles Owl]

Well I for one hope that this will be the last season that we have to settle for signing mediocre players!! Whether the new owners introduce any new methods of assessing what we have such as stats, or just go by the "eye" method, its plain to see we do not have the quality needed to challenge next season. We do have the nucleus of a team capable of challenging but it definitely needs some key additions!!

When will the ratification come through?? The sooner the new owners can lay out their expectations and plan, and more importantly start working on, the better we will be next season!!

[madsteve]

Well I for one hope that this will be the last season  that we have to settle for signing mediocre players!!  Whether the new owners introduce any new methods of assessing what we have such as stats, or just go by  the  "eye" method, its plain to see we  do not have the quality needed to challenge next season.  We do have the  nucleus of a team capable of challenging but it  definitely needs some key additions!!

When will the ratification come through??  The sooner the new owners can lay out their expectations and plan, and more importantly start working on, the better we will be next season!!

If you take our current squad (less a few dead beats), add the on loan players and add two or three quality players then we could challenge for promotion next season.

GK - Westwood, Wildsmith, Dawson

CB - Lees, Loovens, Dielna +1

FB - Palmer, Vermijl, Helan, Mattock

Mid - Hutchinson, McGugan, Lee, Semedo, Melo +1 (Antonio, BM10, Knockhart)

Strikers - Keane, May, Madine, Bus +1

The margins between success & failure have been tight this season & we have failed due to poor tactics, formation & substitutions. Get those right & we are close to the Playoffs. Get one of Antonio, BM10 or Knockhart & another striker and we are close to automatic promotion.

We made two fatal errors.

1) Pushing Antonio out to get May

2) Not taking Afobe on a free when he was clearly going to get goals (24 goals already this season including 5 in 7 matches for Wolves)

[Owlkev71]

What about the 3 teams that get relegated, are they going to do as shit as the 3 that came down last season, then theirs the teams that fail in the playoffs this season. I think the best we could hope for next season is maybe a playoff push if we 1) get the right players in, 2) the defense keeps up to its standard from this season, 3) some creative players to feed the attacking players and 4) we find someone, or preferably 2, who can put the ball in the back of the net on a regular basis.

You can have all the analysts you want, its still down to the players on the pitch to do the business & a flexible manager when it comes to tactics and formation.

Keane & McGugan are both on loan, so their is no guarantee they will both sign in the summer, though we should have a decent chance with McGugan.