[0762]

It is getting closer to the time to gauge the likely timetable to progress towards Scot Indy 2, esp when it looks like 50% of the voting population favours Scot Indy. Three questions are inter-linked and can be combined on a timeline: "Can Brexit be stopped?", "Will it be a hard or soft Brexit?" and "When do I think the Scot Indy referendum will happen?" Sept-Dec 2018 will prob see many "defining moments" when the Tory govt will poss implode in total disagreement, a poss general election may follow or an Oct meeting by EU Council that could ratify a deal brokered on a min approval vote by 20 member states. December could see the Article 50 withdrawal agreement being signed by officials from the Council of Europe followed by presentation by the PM in Jan 2019 of the Withdrawal and Implementation Bill through parliament for a final vote - ratify or not? IMO this will be the moment when the type of Brexit will define the message of the Scot Indy movement. On 29 March 2019 at 11.00am we leave the EU but remember there is a 21 month transition period to move to a new trade deal (assuming a no deal has been avoided!) - far too short a time btw, absolute folly. So I reckon Nicola Sturgeon will move in April or May to ask the UK govt for a Section 30 Order to hold an indy referendum - IMO 50/50 whether a British govt will approve it but if no approval is given, other constitutional moves could prevail - eg a majority of SNP seats in a general election gives Sturgeon a mandate to begin negotiations with the UK govt, whoever that may be. By December 31 2020 chaos will ensue anyway and the SNP will be in a far better and stronger position to gain a huge majority in the Holyrood parliament and this will reflect the evolving positive "mood" of the Scot population re Scot Indy.