[Owlkev71]

Bherregaard 100/1
Fitzpatrick 25/1
Stenson 16/1

[madsteve]

Bherregaard 100/1
Fitzpatrick 25/1
Stenson 16/1

Great start for Stenson, finishing on -7 in his first round, better than I expected.

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Career Builder Challenge

This is a tricky event in terms of courses with three courses being used, two of them new to the circuit. It is reasonable strength field with the leading players Reed, Kuchar & Zach Johnson.

Reed is a pretty good favourite here. He comes into the tournament in good form but it is hard to get too interested at 10/1 so again I am looking for bigger prices that offer some value.

Bill Haas 28/1 Picking a winner here is tricky but Haas ticks the boxes that we think need ticking. He won this event last year, was 6th in 2014, runner up in 2011 & winner in 2010. Haas' record shows that he performs particularly well in the first two months of the year with three of his six PGA titles coming in these months.

Charley Hoffman 45/1 He is a consistent performer now and showed his liking for this event finishing second last year. Should give a good run at a decent price.

Jamie Lovemark 100/1 A promising player with a top twenty finish at the US Open last season. He is a native Californian so should be at home here and has finished top ten in his last two PGA events, the RSM Classic & Sony Open. His last eight rounds have all been in the 60s and he finished 65-65 last week. Not the finished article but at 100/1 is great value.

Robert Garrigus 200/1 A bit of a punt. He has a 2nd & a 6th on two of the courses being used this week so should feel at home. He is 200/1 and has a shot.

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Abu Dhabi Open

Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets.

There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1.

McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win.

Thomas Pieters 55/1 Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price.

Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value.

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week.


Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above.

Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices.

It is only half way on Day One but cannot help but notice that the leader is our 150/1 choice, Bryson De Chambeau on -8.

[madsteve]

Abu Dhabi Open (Day One)

Thomas Pieters 55/1 -3 Tied 12th

Joost Luiten 70/1 -3 Tied 12th

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 -8 1st

What a brilliant day for our three players today. Pieters & Luiten are in good shape for a decent weekend finish while our 150/1 shot, De Chambeau is one shot clear in the lead. Glad I backed him at 80/1 for First Round Leader!

Rory McIlroy is Tied 3rd, two shots off the lead.

[madsteve]

Career Builder Challenge (Day One)

Bill Haas 28/1 -6 Tied 7th

Charley Hoffman 45/1 -5 Tied 18th

Jamie Lovemark 100/1 -7 Tied 5th

Robert Garrigus 200/1 -1 Tied 91st

We have four players leading the way on -8 so have three of our four players in pretty close contention with our 100/1 shot Jamie Lovemark just one shot back on -7. It is difficult to assess the relative values yet though as the players are using three courses.

[madsteve]

Abu Dhabi Open (Day Two)

Thomas Pieters 55/1 -2 Tied 37th

Joost Luiten 70/1 -7 Tied 3rd

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 -9 2nd

Our hero still has nine holes to play in his second round and is one shot off the lead so is is great shape. So is Luiten, who is tied for third, three shots back. McIlroy still has five holes to play in round two and is tied 9th on -5.

[madsteve]

Football League Bets

Birmingham v Ipswich

This should be a high corners match. 6 of the Blues last 7 home matches have gone over 10.5 corners while 6 of the Tractor Boys' last 7 matches have also cleared this line. Bet TWO Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 1.875.

Middlesbrough v Nottm F.

This should be a low scoring match. Boro haven't conceded a goal in their last nine home matches but have only scored six goals in the last six home matches. Forest match up well with 11 of their 13 away matches failing to reach 2.5 goals. Bet SIX Points on Under 2.5 Goals at 7/10.

Burton v Shrewsbury

This looks like a good bet for high corners. The Brewers last nine home corners totals were 14-14-12-17-11-13-18-11-18 while the Shrews last six away corners totals were 16-16-20-14-17-8. Bet SIX Points on Over 11 Corners (DNB) at 1.875

Chesterfield v Millwall

Eight of Millwall's last nine on the road have gone over 2.5 goals while 9 of Chesterfield's last 11 at home have been over this line. Bet TWO Points on Over 2.5 Goals at 19/20

Fleetwood v Doncaster

This looks good for high corners to me. Fleetwood's last four home corners were 12-12-16-15 while Doncaster's last six away corners were 13-11-15-18-9-15. Bet TWO Points on Over 10.5 Corners at 4/5.

Sheff Utd v Swindon

I fancy goals here. 10 of United's last 11 at home have gone over 2.5 goals at an average of 4 goals per match. Swindon seem to be able to score for fun but are terrible defensively. Bet TWO Points on Over 2.5 Goals at 8/11.

Bristol R v Plymouth

This should be a low corners match. Five of Rovers last six home matches have failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 7.83 corners per match. Three of Argyle's last four away matches failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 8.0 corners. Bet TWO Points on Under 10.5 Corners at 1.825.

Carlisle v York

Another low corners match. Carlisle's last five home corner totals have been 8-10-8-7-5. Five of York's last seven away have failed to reach 10.5 corners at an average of 8.57. Bet TWO Points on Under 10.5 Corners at Evens.

Notts Co v Wimbledon

County are good for goals with their last six home matches finishing 2-1 1-2 4-2 4-3 2-2 2-4 and the Dons match up pretty well averaging 3.43 goals over their last 7 away matches. Bet TWO Points on Over 2.5 Goals at 1.96

Portsmouth v Oxford

Bet365 have set their line at 11 corners. This would have won five & lost once in Pompey's last seven at home and won four and lost once in Oxford's last last seve away matches.


Correct Score Bets

Brighton v Huddersfield 0-1 1-1
Middlesbrough v Nottm F 1-0 2-0
Reading v Sheff Wed 1-2 1-3
Crewe v Wigan 1-2 1-3

Just For Fun Accumulator: Charlton, Hull, Sheff Wed, Barnsley, Northampton 148/1

[madsteve]

Career Builder Challenge (Day Two)

Bill Haas 28/1 -12 Tied 3rd

Charley Hoffman 45/1 -6 Tied 54th

Jamie Lovemark 100/1 -14 2nd

Robert Garrigus 200/1 -7 Tied 35th

Another great day for our players with Lovemark in second, one shot behind the leader, Jason Dufner. Bill Haas is a further two shots back and tied third. Our other two picks are both doing well but have some ground to make up to get into contention. Should be an exciting weekend.

[madsteve]

Abu Dhabi Open (Day Three)

Thomas Pieters 55/1 -9 Tied 6th

Joost Luiten 70/1 -10 Tied 1st

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 -7 Tied 15th

It is a five way tie when play got stopped part way through Round Three with Luiten sharing the lead with McIlroy, Grace, Poulter & Fowler.
Could be an exciting Sunday.

[madsteve]

Career Builder Challenge (Day Three)

Bill Haas 28/1 -15 Tied 10th

Charley Hoffman 45/1 -7 Missed Cut

Jamie Lovemark 100/1 -21 2nd

Robert Garrigus 200/1 -11 Tied 35th

Lovemark is well placed in second, two behind tournament leader, Jason Dufner and one ahead of Hadwin in third and three ahead of Lingmerth in 4th. Dufner is odds on to win at around 8/11 but Lovemark is second favourite at 7/2. Dufner is the class act and has been imperious so far but he can collapse under pressure so a good start is needed.

Always love being in contention with a 100/1 shot.

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Abu Dhabi Open (Day Four)

The players have now completed their third rounds and the leaders start their 4th round in a few minutes. Fowler leads the way on -13 with Luiten on -11 and Stenson, McIlroy, Grace, An, Baldwin & Pieters on -10. Fowler should win from here but the pack are closing in if he falters.

Thomas Pieters 55/1 -10 Tied 3rd

Joost Luiten 70/1 -11 2nd

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 +1 Tied 70th

Pieters & Luiten are both well placed to challenge plus we want Rory to get a Top Five finish.

[madsteve]

Abu Dhabi Open (Day Four)

Thomas Pieters 55/1 -15 Tied 2nd (WINNER for PLACE at 55/4)

Joost Luiten 70/1 -11 Tied 5th (WINNER for Place at 35/6)

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 -2 Tied 54th

Rory McIlroy Evens for Top 5 -14 Tied 3rd (WINNER at EVENS)

Would have been great to get the winner but two places at 70/1 & 55/1 plus my big bet on McIlroy make it another profitable weekend even before the PGA results are in.