|
The gambling/betting thread
|
19-08-2015, 14:38
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka 14/1 Brandt Snedeker 16/1 Hideki Matsuyama 18/1 Ryan Moore 33/1 Daniel Summerhays 100/1
Nothing great will ever be achieved without great men, and men are great only if they are determined to be so. For glory gives herself only to those who have always dreamed of her.
19-08-2015, 15:33
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka 16/1 (Coral) Ryan Moore 40/1 (Coral) Harris English 70/1 (BetFred) Russell Knox 80/1 (Hills) Made In Denmark Marc Warren 10/1 (General) Matthew Fitzpatrick 20/1 (Coral) Oliver Fisher 125/1 (General) Not betting too much this week as the week after a major often throws up shock winners.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
21-08-2015, 09:59
How are our long term bets doing?
Here are comparisons of our price with the current price. Championship Middlesbrough to Win (e/w) 11/2 (Now 3/1) Sheff Wed to Win (e/w) 28/1 (Now 28/1) Huddersfield to be Relegated 4/1 (Now 11/4) Blackburn to be Relegated 8/1 (Now 5/1) Burnley Top North West Side 6/5 (Now 5/4) Sheff Wed Top Half 4/5 (Now 8/11) Blackburn Bottom Half 5/6 (Now 8/15) QPR Bottom Half 11/8 (Now 5/4) Leeds Bottom Half 4/6 (Now 8/15) Benik Afobe Top Goalscorer 9/1 (now 15/2) David Nugent Top Goalscorer 16/1 (Now 20/1) Top Six - Middlesbrough 4/6 (Now 4/9) Top Six - Hull City Evens (Now 8/11) Overall pretty happy so far. Middlesbrough have justified my support & but for a last gasp goal by Derby on Tuesday would be top now. Huddersfield & Blackburn have both started poorly and should give us a good run for our money. Afobe has started brightly but Nugent hasn't had a start yet for Boro. League One Swindon to Win (e/w) 18/1 (Now 18/1) Barnsley to Win (e/w) 20/1 (Now 15/1) Bury to Win (e/w) 35/1 (Now 33/1) Blackpool to be Relegated 11/5 (Now 10/11) Southend to be Relegated 4/1 (Now 9/2) Port Vale to be Relegated 13/8 (Now 6/4) Top Half - Burton Evens (Now 4/5) Top Half - Rochdale 6/4 (Now 4/5) Top Half - Shrewsbury 5/6 (Now 6/5) Top Half - Bury 10/11 (Now 4/5) Bottom Half - Chesterfield 10/11 (Now 5/4) Bottom Half - Walsall 8/11 (Now 11/10) Leon Clarke Top Goalscorer 16/1 (Now 14/1) Tom Bradshaw Top Goalscorer 25/1 (Now 16/1) Paddy Madden Top Goalscorer 25/1 (Now 14/1) Top Six Swindon 2/1 (Now 9/4) Top Six Barnsley 2/1 (Now 7/4) Largely happy. Blackpool have continued to nosedive. Rochdale, Burton & Bury have started well. Chesterfield have bought well and are doing much better than I thought and Walsall have also started well. Our goalscorers have all started well. League Two Portsmouth to Win (e/w) 4/1 (Now 3/1) Top Half Wycombe 5/6 (Now 2/7) Top Half Bristol Rovers 8/11 (Now 2/5) Top Seven - Orient 11/8 (Now 4/5) Top Seven - Northampton 13/8 (Now 11/8) Happy here with all bets now at shorter odds than when placed. My only worry is that Orient are looking so good that they may beat Portsmouth to the title and I think a saver at 8/1 is probably the way to go here.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
21-08-2015, 11:32
Wyndham Championship:
Brooks Koepka -3 T35 Brandt Snedeker E T103 Hideki Matsuyama -5 T11 Ryan Moore -4 T20 Daniel Summerhays -3 T35 Also had a bet on: Tiger Woods -6 T7 Don't think it will last, but you never know. Had an accumulator before the season started, all 4 league winners: Chelsea 16th  Hull City 2nd The Blades 8th Portsmouth 5th £1200 quid if that comes in 
Nothing great will ever be achieved without great men, and men are great only if they are determined to be so. For glory gives herself only to those who have always dreamed of her.
As I have said before, I am not a fan of betting much during the early weeks of the season because there are so many freak results and form and trends haven't had time to set in. One exception that I make is to look for trends that have carried over from the previous season, which can be reliable a bit earlier than new trends. Here are trends that have carried over from last season in the Football League:
Blackburn - 6/7 home matches under 10.5 Corners (average 8.7) Bolton - 4/5 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.8) Bolton - 5/6 away matches over 10.5 Corners (average 13.0) Bolton - 7/8 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.6) Brentford - 10/10 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.8) Brentford - 7/7 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.7) Brighton - 8/8 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.5) Bristol City - 6/7 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.3) Charlton - 5/5 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.2) Fulham - 6/7 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.3) Fulham - 5/5 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.2) Fulham - 13/14 away matches under 3.5 cards (average 2.1) Huddersfield - 5/5 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.4) Ipswich - 5/5 home wins Ipswich - 5/6 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 12.8) Ipswich - 8/10 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 12.5) Leeds - 6/6 without home win Leeds - 7/7 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.6) Leeds - 7/8 away matches over 35 booking points (average 45.6) Middlesbrough - 7/9 home matches clean sheets Middlesbrough - 6/9 home matches win to nil Middlesbrough - 5/5 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 9.2) Nottm F - 7/7 without away win Reading - 6/6 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.0) Sheff Wed - 10/12 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7) Sheff Wed - 8/9 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.1) Wolves - 5/5 homes matches both teams scored Wolves - 6/7 away matches both teams scored Wolves - 9/10 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.5) Blackpool - 10/10 home matches without a win Blackpool - 16/16 away matches without a win Blackpool - 5/6 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 4.0) Bradford - 10/10 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.9) Colchester - 6/7 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.6) Coventry - 4/5 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 9.2) Coventry - 5/6 away matches clean sheets Crewe - 12/12 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.1) Gillingham - 4/4 home wins Gillingham - 6/6 away matches both teams scored Gillingham - 7/7 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.9) Oldham - 5/5 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.4) Oldham - 7/7 away matches under 2.5 goals Peterboro - 12/13 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.8) Peterboro - 7/7 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.9) Peterboro - 7/7 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 13.3) Port Vale - 8/8 home matches without a win Scunthorpe - 7/8 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.9) Southend - 22/24 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.5) Swindon - 9/11 home matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.3) Walsall - 8/9 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.9) Walsall - 8/10 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.6) Accrington - 6/6 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.3) Exeter - 10/11 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.7) Exeter - 8/8 away matches over 2.5 goals (average 3.5) Hartlepool - 7/9 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7) Hartlepool - 11/13 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 11.8) Luton - 12/14 away matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.7) Mansfield - 5/5 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 7.2) Newport - 9/11 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.8) Northampton - 6/6 away matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.3) Plymouth - 6/6 home matches both teams scored Stevenage - 5/6 home matches over 10.5 corners (average 16.0) Stevenage - 6/7 away matches over 10.5 corners (average 15.0) Wycombe - 5/6 home matches under 10.5 corners (average 8.5) York - 13/15 home matches under 2.5 goals (average 1.4) Even though these trends look good, I would still be watchful at this stage of the season. I used to lose money in August & September and it took me until March to win it back. Now I don't bet big until October. There might be a bet or two but I will be keeping small for the next six weeks. (19-08-2015, 15:33)madsteve Wrote: Wyndham Championship: Not a great Day One this week but hey, who knows.....
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
21-08-2015, 20:23
Made In Denmark - Round Two
Marc Warren -4 T15 Oliver Fisher -3 T27 Matthew Fitzpatrick -3 T27 All three make the cut but they all need a big third round to get into contention.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
Wyndham Championship
Harris English -7 T16 Brooks Koepka -6 T22 Ryan Moore -5 T32 Russell Knox -2 Missed Cut by one shot Top of the leader board is Tiger Woods on -11. Can he keep it up? Too early for any bets of note but three jump off the page today. Stevenage v Hartlepool Both of these teams have started the season with high corner trends that match how they finished last season. Stevenage home matches have had over 14.5 corners five times in the last six including 23 last week against Notts County. Pool match up well with 10 of their last 13 on the road topping 10.5 corners, 8 of them topping 12.5 including their first away match this season at York. Normally, I would be betting big here but August form is unreliable so I will be betting small. Bet Over 11 Corners (Draw No Bet) at 1.85 (Bet365) Walsall v Coventry Walsall did us proud last season with low corner games and started this season with just 4 corners against Oldham, taking their home record to 8 out of ten under 10.5 corners with 7 of those under 8.5. Coventry match up reasonably well as they tend to follow the trends of their opponents. Just a very small bet here. Bet Under 10 Corners (DNB) at 1.90 (Bet365) Leeds v Sheff Wed (12.30 kick off) Going for low corners here, mainly based on Leeds' seven consecutive home matches below 10.5 corners at an average of 8.6. Wednesday were a low corner side last season, endorsed by two low home totals this season, but they did go high in their first away match at Ipswich. Again, a very small bet for interest in a TV game. Bet Under 10.5 Corners at 1.875 (Bet365) Have decided to have a bit of fun with a string of correct score bets (very small) West Brom 2-1 Chelsea Palace 1-0 Villa Everton 0-2 Man City Sunderland 0-2 Swansea Man Utd 2-0 Newcastle Leeds 1-1 Sheff Wed Leeds 1-2 Sheff Wed Middlesbrough 2-0 Bristol City Middlesbrough 1-0 Bristol City Burnley 3-2 Brentford Charlton 0-1 Hull Brighton 1-0 Blackburn Barnsley 1-0 Bradford Southend 0-1 Swindon Crewe 0-1 Bury Portsmouth 2-0 Morecambe Wycombe 2-0 Dagenham Yeovil 0-1 Luton This are mainly measured but based on a small sample of results with punts at West Brom ((Chelsea bogey side) and Burnley (should be plenty of goals), which will cover all the bets if they come in.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
(22-08-2015, 09:12)madsteve Wrote: Wyndham Championship Two out of the three bets won with comfortable winning bets at Leeds (7 corners) & Walsall ( 6 corners) Three correct scores at Leeds (7.2), Brighton (7.8) & Southend (12.0) already gives a nine point profit with the games at West Brom & Everton still to come. £50 bets on the corners bets and £10 on the correct scores ((£330 outlay) would have given a return of £458.75 with two results still to come. Hope you were on. Made In Denmark - Round Two Marc Warren -4 T35 Oliver Fisher -6 T12 Matthew Fitzpatrick -2 T62 Need a bit of a good final round to get in the money here. Warren seems to be playing a bit tired as he defends his title. Fisher looks our best bet. Wyndham Championship Harris English -10 T16 Brooks Koepka -9 T21 Ryan Moore -10 T16 All three are just a couple of shots off a place although five shots off the lead makes a win look a bit of a push. Still having three in with a shout on the final day is good. Tiger is tied second on -13.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
24-08-2015, 08:53
Add the correct score on Everton v Man Utd at 11.5 and our profit increases to £243.75.
The golf didn't go so well with a couple of near misses at Wyndham. Brooks Koepka -14 Tied 6th Ryan Moore -13 Tied 10th Harris English -9 Tied 31st Obviously they paid five place. Tiger Woods blew up on the final round to finish Tied 10th but there were signs for three rounds that he might be a contender again.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
If you want to make money on LC Round Two, avoid the favourites. There were eight wins in this round last year by teams beating teams from higher divisions including Wednesday at Burnley & MK Dons against Man Utd.
Backing any team at greater than 9/4 playing a team from a higher division should be profitable with several teams at around 9/1. The PGA Tour Event this week is The Barclays & it is a star studded field with all the big names except McIlroy playing. My strategy is to go for players with a combination of course form and current form with good each way odds. Matt Kucher 35/1 - got a 6th place at the PGA so is in decent form & is a former winner here plus three other top ten finishes. Brandt Snedeker 50/1 - shot a 62 last week to place and shot a 61 here last year. Inconsistent but if he puts a few rounds together..... At 50/1 is good value Graham DeLaet 175/1 - this is a punt as he is just back from injury & he is inconsistent but this is one of his favourite courses. He was 5th in this event in 2012 and 2nd in 2013. He blew it with an opening round of 78 last year but showed his love of the course with a second round 67. With Speith, Day, Rose, Johnson, Bubba, Fowler etc. in the field, it will be tough but one place will give a serious profit. All bets here with Bet365.
The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
|
|
« Next Oldest | Next Newest »
|
