[ritchiebaby]

At least the Scottish ones were self-isolating, one of the English ones has gone AWOL!

[0762]

Yep! That self-isolation was the one saving grace in this whole episode where this new threat could possibly pervade the country. Hopefully that will not happen.

[St Charles Owl]

The problem the Scottish cases have is that they flew from LHR to Aberdeen, that means potentially a lot of people who could have been exposed. The two English ones didn’t use any public transportation from what I can see. The one who is missing is a real mystery, and how he was able to not complete paperwork is strange!! All of these traveled before the red list restrictions came into effect, I suppose that could have been predicted.

I flew into the UK last Friday and it was check after check both in the States and in the UK at LHR to make sure I had all the correct tests either already done or proof of purchase and delivery of the two I need to take on day 2 and 8. I also had to present proof of completing the Passenger Location Form so they know where I am and I received a phone call from the Government on Sunday to ask further questions regarding quarantine and testing. With everything I had to go through I absolutely wouldn’t be here unless it was necessary, its just too much paperwork and other things that need doing, but it should have been like this sooner in reality. By the time I go back to the US in a couple of weeks I will have taken at least 10 tests either for the Government or for work!!

[ritchiebaby]

The big problem with the Scottish cases is that the 3 concerned flew into Aberdeen at the end of January! How many co-passengers might have already transmitted the virus to their contacts and then to their contacts' contacts, etc. Why does it take so long to warn us what is happening?

[0762]

This is a big challenge for the Scot contact tracing exercise that is underway, apparently an enhanced one. Hopefully it will deal with this threat effectively and the Scot GOVT can still focus on gradually getting out of this lockdown once and for all.

[ritchiebaby]

It's not only a big challenge, it's probably an impossible task. If the 20 other passengers already found have made contact with only 5 people each up to mid-February, that's now 100 needing to be found. If these have made contact with another 5 each in the two weeks up to now, that makes 500 so far. And none of these contacts will have been aware up to now, and are probably still unaware, that they are contacts.

[St Charles Owl]

It's not only a big challenge, it's probably an impossible task. If the 20 other passengers already found have made contact with only 5 people each up to mid-February, that's now 100 needing to be found. If these have made contact with another 5 each in the two weeks up to now, that makes 500 so far. And none of these contacts will have been aware up to now, and are probably still unaware, that they are contacts.

And there in a nutshell is the whole problem with pandemics, the reality is it is incredibly hard to stop them once they are in!! I took a mandatory test in the 72 hours prior to my flight to LHR, but that only means I wasn't positive at the time of the test. I was careful in the following couple of days but my wife and daughter were still doing what they had to do, so I could easily have still got it if I was unlucky. Since then I have taken another test which came back negative, so I know I wasn't infecting anyone on the flight at least. I will be tested again tomorrow, Thursday and Friday by both the Government mandate and my work rules before getting a couple of days off having to shove sticks up my nostrils!!

[0762]

We've lost over 7000 people to COVID in Scotland and I'm looking at today's COVID stats for Scotland and 542 new positive COVID cases confirmed for the past 24 hours, a 4.2% positive test sample (<5% as affirmed to be a significant control factor by the WHO). It saddens me to hear that another 33 Scot citizens have died to COVID. Yesterday was the anniversary of the 1st confirmed COVID victim in Scotland although I will say that I reckon I contracted it at Tannadice a week before this one and suffered for about 8-10 weeks. My main point is the fact that caution prevails as COVID is still with us although it seems to be under control, deaths down, R number about 0.7, vaccine program "flying" and case numbers starting to "plateau"; schools are gonna return on 15 March and suspended Scot footie leagues given the "green light" to start again although I'd argue that it would be better to call a halt and prepare for a more positive new footie season in July-August.

[hibeejim21]

Problem is the Kent variant is skewing the figures so we have to remain cautious.

We have to let the vaccine rollout do its job and relieve the pressure on the NHS, but by the same token you cant let other variants run rife among the younger sections of the population at the same time. I'd say sturgeon is about right to start easing down end of April time.

[spireitematt]

I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed come June 21st. I can't see the country fully opening up come that date, it's probably more likely we will be in tiers or another lockdown by then.