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+--- Thread: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? (/showthread.php?tid=2762)
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RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 03-05-2017
Barnier already making davies look like an intellectual pygmy. They are masters when it comes to negotiation.
Anyone who thinks the tories are playing this 'cards close to the chest' rather than 'haven't got a xxxx clue' is drinking deep from the delusion cup.
(02-05-2017, 02:50)St Charles Owl Wrote: This is all just posturing by both sides, this sort of rhetoric should have been expected from both sides but in the end they will overall meet somewhere in the middle. Some topics will be driven hard by one side, other topics by the others, but as with all negotiations you will take a loss on some things to win on others depending on the goals you set and the importance of the topic to each side.
As regards keeping the negotiations secret, then it would be naive and foolish to lay all your cards on the table before they actually get going!! As you say keeping the EUs stance on issue will be virtually impossible considering the number of people involved but May should keep her cards close to her chest in the hope of getting as good a deal as she can, doesn't mean it will be a great deal or even a good one, but it might be the best we can get. The EU are not going for transparency either, they are putting out some particular points that they intend to push hard but that doesn't mean they won't compromise on them if they need to.
As regards trade between the UK and EU, then this will have to be worked out because its too important to both sides. We import more from the EU than we export to them, so we have more to lose but when you consider the value of our exports to the EU (230b in 2015) then neither side can afford to lose this trade. We have a trade deficit with Germany of over 25 billion, it is not in Germany's interests to not strike a deal to allow German companies to continue to benefit from the UK market, just as much as its not in our interests either. Sure some companies will possibly move to keep their share, but likewise you may see some EU companies who are reliant on the UK market to move to the UK to maintain their sales there.
Germany trades far,far more with the rest of the single market. If a deal with the UK de-stablises the single market then it's not in Germany's interest. Not at all,and that's going to be the crux of the matter.
The feeling on the continent is that the UK economy will take a massive hit and the Brexit vote is mostly seen as an act of utter stupidity. As a market place it will be diminished; in the services and finance sector alone parts of operations are being moved from the UK to places like Luxembourg and frankfurt on a weekly basis.
The EU will want to strike a deal and will compromise but the final deal is going to be much more in there favour,thats why the tories want it all kept secret.... Because the plebs might work out they have been duped.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 03-05-2017
The EU aren't transparent ?
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/595374/IPOL_STU(2017)595374_EN.pdf
They are laying their sums out for all to see. Worst case scenario no deal brexit will cost the EU 0.5% GDP and nearly 5% for the UK.
The losses could be highly significant for the UK, with various estimates up to ten times greater as a share of GDP....with Ireland particularly affected.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 03-05-2017
I also notice Merkel has regularly laid out various 'caveats' re the UK's perceived smooth transition away from the EU. I believe that officials in UK gov believed Merkel would play some kinda pivotal role in eventually brokering a reasonable deal. She has effectively 'slammed the door' and let the business begin with the EU's full interests at heart and the UK's interest will definitely be a poor second or 'third party' in that respect and wrt it's financial/economic detriment! There is also a huge cultural difference politically - I call it 'in your face'politics particularly in England and it is so diverse from politics in Europe which build on alliances and coalitions - that's exactly why I see Scotland's position as strongly aligned to European ideologies due to our vastly different culture and pluralist society compared with vast swathes of England! One can see why the relationship is gonna sour as we are already observing with the confrontational dialogue that is, election or no gen election, the wrong way to go about the negotiation of the UK's formal exit from the EU single market before it has even seriously started!
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 04-05-2017
May is determined to crash out and blame the EU. The right wing media will hail that as a victory.
The start of that was yesterday with our long predicted and it has to be said highly bizarre "unleashing" of anti EU sentiment from the PM. Accusing foreigners of interfering in an election is reminiscent of Erdogan and Putin.
She's like some cartoon caricature of mrs T. Now she could be horrible but she would never have been this stupid.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 04-05-2017
I think it's ultimately this contagious 'thirst for more power' that these political megalomaniacs tend to have attached to their persona - not the only one btw but my 'rule of thumb' re these kinda perverse individuals is that they are the last ones that you should ever be voting in to power!!
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 19-05-2017
(04-05-2017, 11:57)hibeejim21 Wrote: May is determined to crash out and blame the EU. The right wing media will hail that as a victory.
The start of that was yesterday with our long predicted and it has to be said highly bizarre "unleashing" of anti EU sentiment from the PM. Accusing foreigners of interfering in an election is reminiscent of Erdogan and Putin.
She's like some cartoon caricature of mrs T. Now she could be horrible but she would never have been this stupid.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/angela-merkel-uk-will-pay-a-price-for-brexit-immigration-plans-2017-5?yptr=yahoo
And Angela Merkel fires out another warning salvo against May as the UK PM continues to wear the UKIP mantel, esp on populist issues like immigration, in order to cynically 'pull' the expected votes from absconding UKIP voters while parts of her Tory manifesto try to con/embrace the left and centrist sections of the British electorate but again cynically trying to ensure she pulls the required votes. I notice certain issues like attacking the elderly and vulnerable + her ludicrous support of fox-hunting are the subject of criticism from various quarters with three weeks to go until election day but you can see what is gonna unfold in the final week - the Tories activate their RW press/media backers and they push home the personal attacks on Corbyn, the weak Labour Party leader, a left winger with history and a fractured party etc etc. I've seen this scenario unfold all too often in the past and, in fact, these kinda personal attacks could well be reversed and fired at May herself as she is not as good a politician as we are led to believe and her past political history is not that impressive and particularly on previous immigration policies and promises!!! However, the Labour party does not have access to this press/media 'blanket coverage' in this so called democratic country that we live in (sic)
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - theo_luddite - 19-05-2017
May Day will argue that an election victory of 2 - 200 seats will give her carte blanche to do what the hell she likes, from a Brexit deal (or lack of one) that no other sane person would agree to (but she'd blame the workings of the deal, or lack of one on the EU anyway), to being allowed to take a dump by a tree next to the A1 and have her husband wipe her arse in public if she wanted to. TBH it would probably be Boris but you get the jist.
Labour, SNP, LibDems and the others won't get enough seats between them or collectively to wipe her nose let alone her arse (and I'm no Tory voter) unless she throws a complete wobbler this month or next. She won't do a head to head TV debate, which she should only win anyway, because she's busy having practice poo's in the gardens of No.10. The plonker in charge of the NHS who went missing this weekend while some Ruski virus man was making us all ill or skint was probably playing an understudy arsewipe in rehearsals while Boris licked up to a few Russians in practise.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 12-06-2017
IMO brexit was really about avoiding the new EU tax legislation that's coming down the pike,driven by the wealthy tax evaders with their friendly too powerful press barons shunting the tories around like dodgem cars to appeal to the right wing tendencies and anti immigration sentiment among the working classes.
This Theresa May government is almost certainly a sham to buy the Tories more time to sort out a strategy to deal with the total utter mess they are in and that their sponsors have helped drive.
God help us all.
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - 0762 - 12-06-2017
It's OK Jim - Cruella is reshuffling her cabinet lol!!! Replacing a few erseholes with some other erses lol!!!
RE: European Union Referendum - In or Out?? - hibeejim21 - 20-06-2017
The brexit negotiations are going really well. Hammond totally undermining davis's position,davis lying to the media and caving in on negotiating the withdrawal rather than trade after day 1.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/876852260365631489
The unravelling of this government is going to be spectacular. Buy plenty of popcorn!